Introduction
The Middle East is a region with a very well established system of interstate relations, which has been developed due to historical confrontation and cooperation as well as economic interdependence. New changes have also contributed to the development of a new situation that has an impact on the stability of the region and the relations between countries. The purpose of this article is to identify the main changes in the Middle Eastern geopolitics, their effects and the causes.
The Iran-Saudi Arabia Rivalry
The antagonism between Iran and Saudi Arabia can be regarded as one of the most stable features of the Middle East system. This conflict can be attributed to historical, religious and political enmity of the two countries that are seeking hegemony in the region.
Yemen Conflict: The Yemen civil war has escalated to become an Iran Saudi Arabia proxy war. Saudi Arabia is on the side of Yemen’s government while Iran supports the rebel group known as Houthis. Conflict has rendered millions of people unable to feed and house themselves because of the civil war. It has also had consequences on the Saudi Arabian capacity and its image in the international system.
Nuclear Deal and Sanctions: One of the existing issues has been the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) also known as the Iran nuclear deal. The situation has worsened after the U. S withdrawal from the deal in 2018 and placing sanctions on Iran. Negotiations to revive the deal under the Biden administration have challenges, which is a problem for stability and economic growth in the region for Iran.
The Change of Relations with Israel
That is why the signing of the peace treaties between Israel and several Arab countries can be considered as a significant shift in Middle East politics. The peace agreements referred to as the Abraham Accords have been inked by the United States and have seen Israel normalize relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.
Economic and Security Cooperation: These agreements have provided opportunities for cooperation in the economic and security aspects. For example, the UAE and Israel have inked agreements in the areas of technology, tourism, and healthcare among others. This normalization is considered as a strategic move to address usual threats especially from Iran.
Palestinian Issue: While normalization has brought economic benefits, it has also sparked criticism. The Palestinian leadership views these agreements as a betrayal of their cause. The lack of progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a significant challenge, with ongoing violence and disputes over settlements continuing to fuel tensions.
The Role of External Powers
External powers, particularly the United States, Russia, and China, play crucial roles in shaping Middle Eastern geopolitics.
U.S. Influence:
The U.S. has historically been a dominant player in the Middle East, maintaining strong alliances with countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, recent years have seen a shift in U.S. policy, with a focus on reducing military presence and encouraging regional partners to take more responsibility for their security. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the re-evaluation of its involvement in Iraq and Syria reflect this strategic pivot.
Russia’s Role:
Russia has reasserted its influence in the Middle East, particularly through its military intervention in Syria. Supporting the Assad regime, Russia has secured its strategic interests, including maintaining its naval facility in Tartus. Russia’s involvement has also allowed it to position itself as a key player in diplomatic negotiations and counterbalance U.S. influence.
China’s Economic
Engagement: China’s approach to the Middle East is primarily driven by economic interests. Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is investing in infrastructure projects across the region. China’s non-interference policy and focus on economic cooperation have made it an attractive partner for many Middle Eastern countries seeking diversification of their economic partnerships.
Internal Dynamics and Political Reforms
Internal dynamics within Middle Eastern countries are also crucial in understanding the region’s geopolitical landscape.
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030:
Vision 2030 is the strategic framework for the future of Saudi Arabia that has been launched by Mohammed bin Salman. It also has major social and economic objectives like tourism promotion, women’s rights improvement, and foreign investment attraction. Although such reform measures have been widely applauded globally, there is a common concern over human rights abuses and suppression of the opposition.
Turkey’s Regional Ambitions:
Turkey and especially under the presidency of Erdogan is an active player in regional politics as it seeks to expand its role in the region. The above-mentioned operations in Syria and Libya and the dispute with Greece and Cyprus over the maritime jurisdictions are examples of the above mentioned ambition. This increasing role of Turkey has implications for the distribution of power and of alliances in the region.
Economic Challenges and Opportunities
Some of the issues that the Middle East is facing at the moment include COVID-19, fluctuating oil prices and the need to diversify the economy.
Oil Market Volatility:
The area relies on export of oil and as such is very much vulnerable to changes in the world oil prices. The pandemic of COVID-19 influenced the demand and prices and deepened the issues. Bureaus are becoming more conscious about the diversification strategies to enhance the stability of the economy.
Post-Pandemic Recovery:
Nevertheless, there are threats and opportunities in the process of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments are implementing stimulus measures and expenditure in healthcare and technology for the revival of the economy. The pandemic has also accelerated the process of digitization which has created new potential for the development and progress.
Conclusion
Middle Eastern geopolitics can be characterized by the object of study as the relations between the states of the region, the formation of relations with other states, the influence of the extra-regional powers, the internal transformations, and the economic environment. Knowledge of these processes is crucial for determining the state and development of the region.
Bottom Line
Regarding the geopolitical context of the Middle East, it is possible to mention that it has rather a favorable outlook but with some threats. These are the processes of strategic partnership, economic development, and conflict management both internal and external.