It seems that the United States is preparing to pull out of Iran nuclear deal in May. Despite opposition from Moscow and Beijing to U.S pressure for “fixing” the deal, if not rewriting it, its collapse would have three significant outcomes for international relations: The first would be a formidable blow to the trans-Atlantic alliance as Europeans would come to see the extremism in Trump’s foreign policy as detrimental to Europe’s long-term economic and security interests. The second is that America would lose credibility and be seen as a deeply unreliable partner in negotiating and resolving international crises. And the third outcome would be a further strengthening of ties between Iran, China, and Russia, tilting the global strategic equation toward the China-Russia axis.
Bonus for Beijing & Moscow
Breaching the deal would also offer Iran an opportunity to emerge victorious in the global war of public opinion. Iran would be seen as an honest signatory to an international security agreement negotiated by world’s major powers. Tehran would also embark on a serious revitalization of its economy through an array of strategic partnerships with China and Russia that is certain to include greater integration with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and joining the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
The proposed measures by the Americans are designed intentionally to be deal breakers. For example, full access to military sites is one such measure. The Iranians would never allow foreign inspectors to visit Iranian military sites as they consider it to be a blatant violation of Iran’s national security interests.
China and Russia would seize the opportunity to pull Iran further into their orbit and integrate it deeper into a multi-polar economic and security order. If looked closely, the Americans would be curtailing their own influence in Southwest Asia by executing a short-sighted vision developed by neoconservatives in Washington and Tel Aviv.